Could Ovulaid become a real business? To properly address whether Ovulaid would be a feasible venture, we created a detailed business plan after consulting with relevant companies and stakeholders. Furthermore, we successfully pitched our project to startup mentors and investors.

21st of May
Meeting with Martin B. Justesen
Business expert, daily leader of SUND Hub

About SUND Hub
SUND Hub is a part of UCPH innovation house. UCPH innovation house is a hub for students that can mentor them to move forward with their ideas and hopefully establish startups.
Outcome
Martin advised us to look into the following: our target group, their problems and the gap in the ovulation test market. Furthermore, Martin referred us on to Tine Stampe as her company aligns with the interests of Ovulaid and it shares the same target group.

27th of June
Meeting with Tine Stampe
Founder & CEO of La Roar Life Science Aps

To read more about Tine Stampe and the talk we had with her about our target group see our Integrated Human Practices page.

18th of July
Meeting with Michael Schmücker
Entrepreneur and mentor for startups

To read more about Michael Schmücker and the talk we had with him about how to generate profit with our app, about data security, GDPR and much more see our Integrated Human Practices page.

26-28th of July
Feedback from judges of the InParis meetup

About the InParis meetup
To read about the InParis meetup see our Meetups page.
Outcome
The judges at the meetup stressed that in order to have an advantage over existing products, Ovulaid would have to be cheaper. To see if we can reach it, we decided to make a business plan.

31th of July
The team decided to make a business plan and started to contact business experts

2-4th of August
Mentor advice at the BioHackathon’19: Lab app in Vilnius

About the BioHackathon’19: Lab app
At the BioHackathon in Vilnius a team of mentors were available throughout the weekend. While some of them knew everything about coding and developing apps, others were experts in advertising, or marketing. To read about the BioHackathon in Vilnius see our Meetups page.
. Outcome
The mentors recommended that Ovulaid should be marketed outside the EU. The mentors' advice also lead us to define Ovulaid’s value proposition: Ovulaid: rethinking fertility tracking. This statement reflects both the importance of fertility tracking, but especially the ambition to dare to confront the status quo in technology for women. To see full summary of the meetings with the mentors see the appendix at the Integrated Human Practices page.

12th of August
Launching of quantitative market analysis

To determine the needs of our target group we made a quantitative market analysis. More than 1500 people from 42 different countries filled out our survey. For more information see our Education and engagement page.

28th of August
Talking to Dr. Kathya Nallapothula about the Indian market
Gynecologist and fertility clinic owner

About Dr. Kathya Nallapothula
On a visit home, one of our team member consulted an Indian gynecologist -Dr. Nallapothula- in her own fertility clinic. To read the full report check the appendix on our Integrated Human Practices page.
Outcome
Dr. Kathya opened our eyes to the needs of women beyond the western hemisphere. Indian women are facing societal and environmental challenges in regards to their fertility that western women can hardly understand. Besides, India is projected to be the largest market for fertility tests in the world in the following years¹.

5th of September to 7th of October
In-depth interviews with women suffering from fertility problems

About the interviews
We interviewed 15 women to better understand our target group and to collect their opinion on the current ovulation tests on the market.
Outcome
The outcome from the interviews was the same as from the survey: women are unhappy with current ovulation tests and eager to try Ovulaid. The analysis of the in-depth interviews can be found on the Education and engagement page.

6th of September
Pitching our project to the American business expert: Valerie Landis
Head of Business Development in Crown Fertility, business expert specialized in launching new ventures

About Valerie Landis
Valerie Landis is Head of Business Development in Crown Fertility in Chicago and is also a Women’s Health Reproductive specialist. She has years of experience with medical healthcare sales within the women's healthcare space, international business experience and is specialized in launching new ventures.
Outcome
Valerie thinks there is great potential in our idea and she wants to become our startup mentor. She told us that Ovulaid would be a perfect fit for the US market. Drawing on her professional experience, she also provided helpful input for the marketing plan. In her opinion, our chewing gum is way better than the existing methods because it is "finally a comfortable solution".
Valerie made us realize, that Ovulaid is part of a larger movement called “fertility awareness” and that we should also use our platform to educate women about fertility and pregnancy. Read more here.

11th of September
Addressing regulations for the US market

Taking to heart the advice of the Biohackathon mentors and Valerie Landis we chose the United states of America as Ovulaid's primary target market. We researched the US market regulations and found that Ovulation tests are categorized as “Medical Device”, which we then confirmed via email with the American Food and Drug Association (FDA). To see the e-mail correspondent see appendix in the Integrated Human Practices page.

16th of September
Pitching our project to the investor: Nicolaj Højer Nielsen
Entrepreneur, startup mentor, investor

About Nicolaj Højer Nielsen
Nicolaj is an entrepreneur and investor who has been building startups since 1999. He has already invested in thirteen companies in the IT field, with a high potential. Besides this he dedicates a significant part of his time to help coaching and mentoring startups.
Outcome
Nicolaj delivered input on our financial plan and specifically on how to estimate the price of Ovulaid.

18th of September
Meeting with Emil Andersen
CSO and Co-founder of Exseed Health

About Exseed Health
About Exseed Health Exseed Health is a danish company making fertility tests for men. Their sperm test is an at-home testing kit and is using a smartphone device. In a short time Exseed Health has gained much exposure and they have been featured in many international newspapers.
Outcome
We discussed the cost of the legal process of obtaining patents and how to proceed with clinical trials in regard to the regulation of Ovulaid.

26th of September
Attending the “Regulatory Affairs for Medical Device Startups - SUND Hub Insight”

About the event
This event introduced the participants to the regulatory world of medical device development and made connections between healthcare professionals, and startups in the early stages.
Outcome
We were advised to get a patent on Ovulaid as fast as possible and we got a contact in quality assessment, that would help us when we created a startup.

9th of October
Pitching our project to the Australian investor: Steven Yatomi-Clarke
Serial entrepreneur, mentor and investor

About Steven Yatomi-Clarke
Steven is an Australian serial entrepreneur, mentor and investor who has helped multiple startups, with advice, coaching, mentoring, building up their business, and investing. He is a former investment banker specializing in life sciences and is currently CEO and Managing Director in a potential new therapies to treat a range of cancers disease - Prescient Therapeutics-.
Outcome
Steven contacted us after having seen our widespread media exposure. He wanted to learn more about our project and offered his support as a mentor and possibly as an investor, which we were of course very excited about. We have established a dialogue and are looking forward to furthering our collaboration after the Giant Jamboree.

2.1 Introduction

The international fertility test industry is expected to grow to over $2.5 billion until 2023¹. The industry’s growth has been driven mainly by:
• the increasing availability of new reliable technologies
• the change in women’s lifestyle
• increasing awareness of fertility tracking and family planning
• increasing number of pregnancy complications².

However, according to our market analysis, there is a gap in the industry caused by the lack of comfortable ovulation tests. There is a need for easy fertility tracking that can be incorporated into couples' everyday routines, without them having to change their habits. Ovulaid offers them the solution: a chewing gum that can measure all the key sex hormones in women's saliva and increase their chances of becoming pregnant.

2.2 Company description

Ovulaid is creating a convenient fertility- and menstrual cycle tracking chewing gum. Our gum and the mobile application could help monitor women’s hormonal health, accompany their fertility treatments, replace several invasive blood tests and trips to the doctor and better women's chances of conceiving in general.
Developing, producing, and selling this novel femtech “smart gum” is a unique challenge. It will be able to detect 3 key sex hormones involved in conceiving - estrogen, luteinizing hormone (LH) and progesterone - and can give users a more precise and comprehensive picture than currently existing methods.
According to our in-depth-interviews: chewing a gum is a convenient, less stigmatizing, and overall favorable method for women to identify their fertile period compared to the currently available tests on the market.

2.3 Industry analysis

Ovulaid will compete in the fertility test industry which is in the growth phase of its life cycle. The industry sales in our primary target market -the US- are forecasted to be $900 million by 2023 and the expected growth rate is 2.2%.¹
From 2024 we plan to expand to include India as a target market, due to that fact that India will be the biggest ovulation test market in the close future, with the similar advantages as the American market¹.
The industry is competitive and relatively concentrated. According to our market research, it is absolutely possible to compete, despite the less fragmented market.

2.4 Market analysis

Over 90% of the 1500 participants of our survey are eager to use our product even though it contains GMO. Our in-depth-interviews supported the same result.
After considering the results of our market research, Ovulaid will first target American women that are trying to conceive. In the future, we strive to branch out and include teenagers who would like to monitor their hormonal health as well as women who go through hormone theraphy.
We calculated with the assumption that the market share will be 1% in 2022 and that it will increase slowly to 4% in the US until 2028. We expect that we will own 1% of the Indian market in 2024 and increase our market share to 3% until 2027 with the help of hospitals and gynecologists who will help us distribute the product. Ovulaid is confident that this goal is achievable.

2.5 Marketing plan

The overall objective of Ovulaid’s marketing strategy will be to make people aware of the benefits of fertility tracking and to sell them the innovative idea of Ovulaid's “smart gum”. We are different from our competitors because:
• Ovulaid is rethinking fertility tracking. No one has ever made a chewing gum for hormone tracking before.
• It will be more precise than the alternatives. None of the ovulation detection methods tracks all 3 key sex hormones to get a more precise picture of the person’s fertility.
• Ovulaid is comprehensive. Our mobile app adjusts to each woman’s individual body and cycle with the help of artificial intelligence making the product even more user-friendly.
• Using a chewing gum is comfortable. Chewing a piece of gum is part of our everyday life. With Ovulaid, women will not have to change their habits to track their fertility.
Our successful marketing campaign has already resulted in a huge interest from international media (The Guardian, RTL etc.). We would like to continue our promotional activities in different media channels, utilize influencers to use and promote our product and emphasize public relations.

2.6 Financial projections

Based on the financial plan one can see, that if we assume that the investor’s return on investment (ROI) is 25%, the company value is going to reach $3 048 000 by 2030. In reality, this number can be significantly higher as Ovulaid’s technology can have various further applications (smart gums tracing different hormones, diseases, etc.) and we can target other markets as well, but these were not in the scope of this business plan. We used the following further assumptions: in the first 3 years, the company can be financed with venture capital and donations. After the first 3 years, the company’s costs can be covered by its own revenues, meaning that we reach break-even and start to make profits. After the 10th year, the company’s revenues are expected to grow by 5% each year. The profit bares 20% tax.

3.1 Industry size, growth rate, sales projections

Fertility test industry	2016	Forecast for 2023
Sales globally	$1000 million	$2500 million
Growth globally	CAGR of approximately 4.5%
Sales in the US	$550 million	$900 million
Growth in the US	CAGR of approximately 2.2%

Source for this information: https://www.marketresearchfuture.com/reports/ovulation-test-market-1341

3.2 Industry structure

The Ovulation test market is segmented on two bases:
• product type (urine-based (coloration or digital ovulation test), saliva-based or other tests)
• application form (home use or hospital use)⁶.
From these segments, the urine-based tests are the most commonly used in the home care segment and it is forecasted to generate the vast majority of the market revenue in the next years².

The industry is relatively concentrated since the top 5 ovulation test manufacturers owned 63.3 % of the market in 2015. The top seller Clearblue company had 33.4 % market share, followed by First Response with 12.6 % and Prestige Brands with 7.6 % in 2015⁷. The competition throughout the industry is strong and companies compete mainly on the basis of price. There is a new trend of digital ovulation tests which are very popular among women because of the easy interpretation of the results.
Despite the less fragmented market, we find that it is possible for Ovulaid to compete, based on the feedback we collected during our market research. Besides, the mentioned huge advantages of the usage of our precise and comfortable biodegradable chewing gum, our price could also compete in the current price war because our production costs are forecasted to be much lower than the production of the plastic urine-based ovulation tests.

3.3 Key success factors

The key success factors for the industry are as follows:
Product features, quality and ease of use:
Women expect 98-99% accuracy for the ovulation tests. They prefer digital kits because the conventional line tests can have ambiguous results which cause uncertainty among women.
The newest, more expensive tests can measure the estrogen peak in addition to the LH peak. As a result, instead of a simple YES or NO output, it can also tell the user if the fertile period is close.
A new, innovative start-up launched a kit for home use that can measure the concentration of LH and display the exact number for the user. Another new company launched an application that helps the user to understand the result of the conventional saliva-based tests (based on ferning patterns).
The mentioned new trends in the ovulation test industry shows the exact features, that Ov should strive for and already contains:
✔ track more hormones
✔ give an easily understandable result
✔ follow the entire menstrual cycle
✔ measure the exact concentration of the hormones
✔ use apps for the evaluation and storage of the data.

Brand name recognition:
Couples trust ovulation tests more if they are from well-known, established brands such as Clearblue. This is one of the challenges to face as a starting company on the market. It is important to get a good reputation fast enough to have a viable and profitable startup.

Access to distribution channels:
Companies sell their tests in drugstores, supermarkets, hardware stores and online. To be able to compete with them we need to get our product on the shelves of these shops as well, and possibly to medical clinics - fertility clinics, gynecologists, etc.

Price:
Since the current companies on the market offer products with the same features, they have to compete with price. In the US the conventional urine-based tests cost around $20 per 10 sticks, while digital tests are priced at $40⁷. According to our calculations, Ovulaid could win the price war by offering 20 pieces of gum for $10 in the stores.

3.4 Industry trends

Several environmental and business trends affect the growth and attractiveness of the ovulation test industry.

Trends that favor the industry:
• Thanks to national fertility awareness campaigns in the US, Americans are increasingly aware of the advantages and need for ovulation tests.
• The high healthcare costs in the US elevate the popularity of home ovulation tests.
• The increasing popularity of planned pregnancy.
• Female fertility is affected by age. Due to the new working lifestyle of women, they plan to get pregnant later which can lead to a rise in complications.
•Technological improvements in the field made it possible to measure the LH peak with 99% accuracy.
• According to the Centers for Disease Control at least one in eight women faces problems while trying to get pregnant⁸.

Trends working against the industry:
• The emerging focus on the environment does not favor the application of one-use plastic tests. As a result, Ovulaid would be a biodegradable chewing gum and an eco-friendly alternative.
• In the US and other developed countries there is a tendency for having less and less children⁹.
• The unproven accuracy of ovulation tests for patients suffering from PCOD/PCOS¹⁰.

3.5 Long-term prospects

The Ovulation test industry is likely to maintain its current growth curve. The increasing amount of couples facing infertility problems, the higher age women start to plan a family and the rising awareness of ovulation tests will continue to spur growth. The industry is likely to change to adapt more to the needs of women as a result of the development of technology.

4.1 Target market selection

In the beginning, we would not like to define our target market too broadly. As a small company with a limited amount of financial resources, targeting many different segments of the market would be a waste of money. Initially, it is better to market the product for a smaller group of people but do it efficiently. As a result, Ovulaid will first target women who would like to get pregnant but do not suffer from severe infertility or PCOD/PCOS. As a future plan, we can also market our product for the previously mentioned groups. This can be done when Ovulaid can determine very precisely the exact concentration of the hormones present in the saliva. As a result, our gum could replace several invasive hormone blood tests that these women would otherwise need. Later, we can introduce our chewing gum to women and more precisely teenagers who would like to understand their cycle and body, and it can be used as a means to spread fertility awareness.

4.2 Target market size

The following steps were taken to estimate the size of Ovulaid’s target market:

Step 1: Determine Ovulaid’s trade area:
Although our hormone detection system has many advantages over the existing methods, both a Danish start-up (La Roar) and experts from the Danish Fertility Center expressed their concerns about the popularity of GMO products on the Danish market. According to them, the Danes have reservations against GMO products. As a result, we sought markets where GMO is less of a controversy. Valerie Landis, the Head of Business Development at a Chicagoan fertility company and the founder of the startup Eggsperiment, pointed out that the US market holds a positive attitude towards GMO and the regulations in the US are less strict compared to Europe. Furthermore, North America is the largest market currently in the ovulation test industry¹¹.
Besides the US, in 2024 we would like to launch Ovulaid on the Indian market. India will be very soon the largest ovulation test market due to the rapidly increasing population of the country¹¹. We had the chance to talk to an Indian gynecologist, owner of a fertility clinic (Dr. Kathya Nallapothula) who confirmed the previous statement and emphasized the huge need and the possibility for Ovulaid on the Indian market. We could provide an affordable solution for less privileged women there. See more here.
Steven Yatomi-Clarke (a very successful entrepreneur, investor from Australia who is interested in continuing the work with us after iGEM) pointed out that in the future, Australia could also be a perfect market for Ovulaid chewing gum. Australia could be interesting in the future, but in the current plan, we will not include the Austrailian market.

Step 2: Determine the number of children born in a year in our trade area:
Approximately 4 million babies are born each year in the US¹³. Which means that only about 7.4% of the women in the trade area actually wants to get pregnant each year¹².
In India, approximately 26 million babies are born each year²⁵.

Step 3: Determine the total size of Ovulaid’ target market (in dollars) for 2019:
Unfortunately, we were unable to find accessible data on the percentage of women who use ovulation tests to enhance the possibility of conceiving. But according to our survey which was filled by more than 1500 women from all around the world, approximately 40% of couples interested in immediate pregnancy detect their ovulation. If we assume that half of them use ovulation tests for this purpose, this approximated to 800.000 women using ovulation tests in the US.
Most couples are able to get pregnant within 6 months-1year¹⁴. This means that on average couples buy approximately 5 packages of ovulation test during this period. The price of ovulation tests varies greatly, but on average women can buy 1 package for approximately $20. This means that couples usually spend about $100 just on ovulation tests. In the US, which is our first target market, this would amount to: $100 * 800 000 = $80 000K.
In India, according to Dr. Kathya Nallapothula fertility specialist, many hospitals do not have the resources for regular fertility testing despite the huge need. According to the Indian Society of Assisted Reproduction, nearly 27.5 million couples actively trying to conceive suffer from some kind of fertility problems²⁵. The Ovulaid gum could be their first step towards having a baby. If we assume that at least 5% of these people use some kind of test to conceive faster it amounts to: 27 500 000 * 0.05 * $100 = $137 500K.

Step 4: Determine the total size of Ovulaid’s target market (in dollars) for the first 5 years:
From the sources mentioned in the industry analysis section, the US market will grow by 2.2 percentage points over the next several years.
US target market:
2020: $80 000K
2021: $81 760K
2022: $83 559K
2023: $85 397K
2024: $87 276K
2025: $89 196K
We could not find the the exact CAGR for India but since marketresearchfuture.com states that this will be the fastest growing market in the world in the following years we calculated with the minimal growth by 2.2 percentage points that was applied to the US.
Indian target market:
2020: $137 500K
2021: $140 525K
2022: $143 617K
2023: $146 776K
2024: $150 005K
2025: $153 305K

4.3 Competitor analysis:

Direct competitors:
The most popular brand in the urine-based ovulation test market is Clearblue owned by SPD Swiss Precision Diagnostics GmbH. But Pregmate, Easy-at-home, and First response belong also to the key players of the market. They offer mainly 2 different types of kits for tracking ovulation:

Simple urine-based tests:
These tests detect only LH hormone peaks and give 2 strong lines on the stripe as an output. Although this type is relatively cheap, according to our survey and personal in-depth-interviews, people have a lot of difficulties with the interpretation of the results. 1 in 4 women misread the result¹⁵.

Digital urine-based tests:
Companies such as Clearblue solved the previously mentioned problem of confusing results with the digital test. The most advanced digital tests have three outputs indicated with different “smiley faces”. It can show if the user is close to ovulation, when the woman is ovulating and also if the user is not around her fertile period. Despite their higher prices, the digital tests are pretty popular, so most of the companies launched such a product on the market in the previous years.

To sum it up, these tests are in general relatively cheap and easy to use. However, women complained a lot in the in-depth-interviews about the inconvenience of the urine-based tests, that it is too 'sterile' and has a negative effect on their sex lives¹⁶. Furthermore, hormone peaks are very tricky to predict with only a YES or NO output as the concentration and the length of time that the LH is peaking is different from woman to woman. Beside this, if your cycle is irregular or you are suffering for example from PCOD/PCOS, you most likely cannot rely on these tests.

Indirect competitors:
A lot of different, less popular methods exist besides the urine based ovulation tests which can be our indirect competitors.

Calculation, applications:
It is a free but unreliable method for tracking the fertile period. In this case ovulation is calculated from the length of women’s menstrual cycle. But calculation does not work for 80 % of women because they have an irregular cycle¹⁷. Calculation can be done with the help of mobile apps, but these are either providing inaccurate or imprecise information¹⁸. There are more and more studies showing that couples should not rely exclusively on apps¹⁹.

Body Temperature:
In this method women measure their basal body temperature (BBT) orally or vaginally every morning before doing anything else²¹ and record the results every day. The approximately 0.5°C rise should be observed 1-2 days after ovulation. Which means that it cannot predict your fertile window in advance, you have to get to know your body first to be able to use this method. This option is again not applicable for 80% of the women, because they have a very irregular cycle¹⁷. It is a complicated and inconvenient way to track your ovulation, but you only need a thermometer and a lot of patience and persistence to use it²¹.

Saliva test:
If you use this test, you can feel like a real scientist at home: you have to examine your saliva in a microscope. It works because around the time of ovulation the saliva will start to form a pattern that resembles the leaves of a fern. This method requires a relatively expensive microscope and some experience²¹.

Cervical mucus:
In this case women examine their cervical mucus and record its texture on the different days of their menstrual cycle. Its texture changes before the day of ovulation. Although, examining your cervical mucus is for free, you need to be again persistent to choose this path. Furthermore, it can be uncomfortable and repellent as well²².

Vaginal ultrasound:
The vaginal ultrasound uses high-frequency sound waves to produce a picture of the internal organs. It is done by a gynecologist, which makes the method more expensive, uncomfortable and unattractive especially for people from the US.

Future competitors:
Fertility entrepreneurs nowadays receive hundreds of millions of venture capital investments²⁴. It is a significant increase compared to dearth of funding in the previous years. As a result, this field became more popular among startups who would like to facilitate women’s fertility journey. They are developing mainly medical tests, wearables, mobile applications, and different platforms. Our team thinks that a startup company called Ava can have a huge effect on the market. They developed and successfully launched a bracelet in 36 countries worldwide that can do cycle, fertility, and pregnancy tracking with artificial intelligence in a comfortable and precise way. Although Ava seems to be a very innovative and precise solution, it costs $300 on Amazon, which is a considerable price for many couples. Also wearing a bracelet is less discrete than chewing a piece of gum.

Competitive analysis grid:
In order to see the advantages and disadvantages of the most popular methods for ovulation tracking, we made a grid. It clearly shows that Ovulaid will be able to compete with its main competitors:

4.4 Estimate of annual sales and market share

Our board believes that Ovulaid could own 1 % of the US ovulation test market in 2022 even in such a competitive, concentrated industry. Our market share is expected to grow by 3 percentage points in the first 5 year period. We feel this number is achievable since Ovulaid could bring huge innovation to the American industry.
From 2024 Ovulaid would like to grow and also launch the gum in India. We expect that we will own 1% of the market share at the beginning and grow by 2 percentage points until 2027 with the help of hospitals and gynecologists who help us to distribute the product.

Projected income from the chewing gum:
The US and Indian target market size in dollars according to our calculations from the beginning of the market analysis:
2022: $83 559K
2023: $85 397K
2024: $87 276K
2025: $89 196K
Indian target market:
2022: $143 617K
2023: $146 776K
2024: $150 005K
2025: $153 305K

If we take into consideration our market share, the projected money women spend on our chewing gum from 2022 when we expect to launch Ovulaid:
2022: $836K (1% market share in the US)
2023: $1 281K (1.5% market share in the US)
2024: $3 071K (1.8% market share in the US and 1% market share in India)
2025: $4 083K (2% market share in the US and 1.5% market share in India)
2026: $4 957K (2% market share in the US and in India)
2027: $7 599K (3% market share in the US and in India)

This is how much women in total pay for our product in supermarkets, drug stores or in the webshops. We plan to launch our own webshop where people can buy our products for a somewhat lower price than from our distributors. We expect that 35% of Ovulaid sales in the US will come from this:
2022: $836K*0.35= $292K
2023: $1 281K*0.35= $448K
2024: $3 071K*0.35= $550K
2025: $4 083K*0.35= $624K
2026: $4 957K*0.35= $638K
2027: $7 599K*0.35= $978K

The rest of the Ovulaid sales will be through different retailers, and distributors. According to our meeting with Valerie Landis and Nicolaj Højer Nielsen - a well renowed Danish entrepreneur - our company could sell Ovulaid for the retailers for approximately half of the price that the customers see in the supermarket.
Our revenue from this in the US:
2022: $836K*0.65*0.5=$272K
2023: $1 281K*0.65*0.5=$416K
2024: $3 071K*0.65*0.5=$511K
2025: $4 083K*0.65*0.5= $580K
2026: $4 957K*0.65*0.5= $593K
2027: $7 599K*0.65*0.5= $908K

In India:
2024: $3 071K*0.65*0.5=$750K
2025: $4 083K*0.65*0.5= $1 150K
2026: $4 957K*0.65*0.5= $1 567K
2027: $7 599K*0.65*0.5= $2 402K

Projected income from our application:
Pharma companies are interested in reducing the billions of dollar R&D costs by acquiring real-world big data. According to Roche pharmaceuticals, it is impossible for pharma companies to collect the mentioned data as they can’t legally own it. As a result, they are dependent on partnerships with data selling companies , which Ovulaid will also be.

Our plan is to include an anonymous questionnaire in our application. The questionnaire will not be obligatory but women would be incentivized to fill it with a rewards system. The data generated from this questionnaire could feed valuable correlations between environmental factors and hormonal levels, and could be sold to pharmaceutical companies that make drugs and devise treatments for infertility issues. Target clients could be fx. Merck and Ferring pharmaceuticals.

It is here important to mention, that in the US people’s health-related data is their own property. Unfortunately, several reports have been made that health apps are selling sensitive personal information without telling it to the users²². To avoid such abusive business strategies, Ovulaid will make it a priority to ethically inform the users that the data generated from the optional anonymous surveys can be sold to companies to develop and improve their products for the patient’s benefits. To protect the patient data we will use blockchain technology, as suggested by Michael Schmücker. The key aspect that makes this technology an ingenious invention is decentralization. It means that there is no centralized point of weakness for hackers to target, which makes a good case for its use in healthcare data storage and management.

We believe that approximately 18 000 people will use our chewing gum with the application in the first year and approximately 71 000 people in 2027. We based the number on the following calculation: market share/price of one package of Ovulaid/5, because we assume couples buy on average 5 packages of ovulation tests.
We assume that thanks to our rewarding system, about 5 % of women would fill 1 survey per week (52 surveys in a year). Our plan is to sell the result of the survey for $0.5. This means:
2022: $23K
2023: $36K
2024: $44K
2025: $50K
2026: $51K
2027: $78K

Total projected income from all sources:
2022: $292K + $272K + $0 + $23K = $587K
2023: $448K + $416K + $0 + $36K= $900K
2024: $550K +$511K + $750K + $44K= $1 854K
2025: $624K + $580K+ $1 150K + $50K= $2 404K
2026: $638K + $593K+ $1 567K + $51K= $2 848K
2027: $978K + $908K+ $2 402K + $78K= $4 366K

5.1 Overall marketing strategy

Positioning strategy
Ovulaid belongs to the category 'functional products' as it is from the 'getting the job done' type. You chew, snap and finally track you ovulation. It is as easy as it sounds.

Points of differentiation
Ovulaid is rethinking fertility tracking:
• No one has ever made a chewing gum for hormone tracking before.
• Ovulaid chewing gum is also biodegradable, which is not yet seen in any other medical chewing gum.
• None of the ovulation detection methods tracks all 3 key sex hormones to get a more precise picture of the person’s fertility.
• People have measured estrogen hormone concentration in saliva before²⁴ but not progesterone and LH and no one used it for the purpose of ovulation tracking.
• Our mobile app could adjust to each woman’s individual body and cycle with the help of artificial intelligence.
• Chewing a piece of gum is part of our everyday life. Therefore, women do not have to change their habits to use our product for fertility tracking. According to our in-depth-interviews: Ovulaid could be finally a test for women to find their fertile window without stress and stigma.
• Our product will be cheaper than the already existing alternatives.

5.2 Pricing strategy

Our pricing strategy
There are two main ways in which you can determine the price of your product: cost-based pricing or value-based pricing. We have chosen value-based pricing as it is more suited for an estimate at our early-stage than all the exact cost of our product. In order to check that our company is viable with the chosen price and generates enough profit, we made a detailed financial plan, where we listed all the estimated costs. We made the calculations for the first 10 years. At the end of this period the Net Present Value (NPV) of Ovulaid was $3 048 000 with 25 % of return on investment.

The average price of the current ovulation tests is about $20 for 1 package. We wanted to go under this price to win new customers but at the same time, we tried to resist the temptation to charge a too low price. Such a strategy would win a large market share but at the price of generating little profit. Additionally, according to our interviews, customers make a price-quality attribution when looking at the price of the product. This means that they connect a high price with good quality and reliability. At the end, we decided to set the price for $10 for one package of chewing gum containing 20 pieces.

5.3 Sales process

Promotion mix
The promotion mix is the way a company reaches its customers. Until now, we have been mostly focusing on public relations, because in opposition to advertisements, public relations are free. It is a good way to maintain credibility and a good image for a company.

Currently, we are focusing on social media. We have already seen the power of celebrities when Kitti Szabó - a Hungarian actress - Dr. Zsuzsa Csisztu - a famous former Olympic gymnast and TV presenter - and also a British comedy duo: Scummymummies shared our project on their social media sites. Their support helped us to raise awareness around our project, engage people to fill our market research survey and to volunteer for in-depth-interviews. After this success, we plan to continue to contact different influencers and celebrities to use our chewing gum when we launch Ovulaid.

Furthermore, we talked about fertility problems and our project in different conferences, symposiums, we wrote an article about GMO and participated in a podcast. One of our greatest successes was that already many international articles were published about us, one of them in a well-known British newspaper: (The Guardian). We hope that as our product is developed, the interest from the media and couples will grow. Even before it is on the shelves of the supermarket and drugstores we can win the support of the public.
Of course, in the long run, we are also planning to have paid advertisements to advocate for our product. We will use google and social media ads, promote our product on television, on the radio, in newspapers, billboards, and via other media channels.

Distribution and sales alternatives
We would like to collaborate with a biodegradable chewing gum company and manufacture our gum base with their help. Furthermore, after we have developed our final yeast biosensor we would like to scale up outsource its production to a manufacturing company with expertise in bioreactors. In this way, we can save a lot of money and utilize know-how.

After the Ovulaid chewing gum containing the yeast is produced and packed, we would like to store a part of it in our storage room and sell it via a webshop. The rest would be sold to retailers: supermarkets, drugstores, hardware stores and ecommerce stores such as Amazon. In the US sexual wellness vending machines opened just at the beginning of September. We would like to establish contact with these and use their vending machines to reach out to more customers as well. Furthermore, already a doctor -Dr. Norbert Ketskés- and the owner of a fertility counseling company - Georgina Sofia Lazaridou - showed interest and offered their help in distributing it to their patients.

6.1 Development status and tasks

If funding is obtained, Ovulaid will be able to launch the chewing gum on the 1st of January 2022. The following milestones need to be accomplished before that:

Following milestones	Steps we have already made to start the process
Establish a company	✔ We have talked to Jakob Wested -a legal scholar- about the different steps we need to make to open a new start-up company. ✔ We are also in contact with SUND Hub, which is an organization that takes up promising startup ideas and help the students with free legal and business advice. ✔ We talked to Michael Schmücker who explained to us the steps of opening a company in Denmark. ✔ Ovulaid is also in contact with an investor, startup mentor -Steven Yatomi-Clarke- who would like to help us to kickstart our company.
Apply for a patent	✔ We talked to Jakob Wested -a legal scholar- about our possibilities to apply for a patent after the iGEM competition. According to him there is still an option to get a patent for our idea after Boston.
Apply for trademarks and copyrights
Finish optimization of the biosensor system	✔ Since our first lab day in May 2019 we have been working on our biosensor and already made huge steps towards the final product. Currently we are working on the proof of concept.
Prove to the FDA that our system is safe and the quality is appropriate	✔ We looked into the European and American laws and found out that there is a gap: our GMO chewing gum does not go under any specific laws. We are neither a medical device nor a food product or a drug. ✔ We, therefore, wrote to the Danish Medicines Agency and they told us to follow the laws of a medical device. ✔ We even contacted FDA to get their opinion on how such a special product can be approved. ✔ We talked to Claus Rømer Andersen to get more information about the regulatory affairs. ✔ We had the chance to talk to a toxicologist (Gábor Zacher) who helped us to understand the possible health consequences of our gum and to show how we can prove that our gum is safe.
Collaborate with manufacturers who can produce the biosensor, the biodegradable chewing gum and the packing	✔ We are in contact with 2 chewing gum companies -Fertin and True gum- to get chewing gum base for our experiments and some advice on our business plan. We hope that this collaboration can be developed into a business collaboration.
Finish our mobile application and prove that its color detection function is good enough to get a 99% reliable result	✔ We had a meeting with Michael Schmücker -an app developer- who gave us some advice on how to develop a reliable color detection app and how to generate money with our app while paying attention to data safety. ✔ We participated at the Biohackathon in Vilnius where we developed the first version of our app.
Ramp up marketing and public relations initiatives	✔ We conducted a survey with more than 1500 participants and made 15 in-depth-interviews with women from our target group. ✔ We presented our project at several conferences, symposiums, meetups, and we participated in a podcast and a radio show. ✔ We successfully got in touch with 3 celebrities who supported our project. ✔ We published an article about GMO in a Danish daily newspaper. Several international articles were published about our project, one of them in world-famous The Guardian newspaper.

6.2 Challenges and risks

The following challenges and risks are associated with the design, maintenance and the use of Ovulaid chewing gum.
• Our biosensor system does not work as expected.
• Exceeding costs.
• Legal problems with launching a medical device with a living GMO organism in it.
• The usage of our system has unexpected health consequences.
• Problems with patenting our system/similar concept after participating in iGEM.
• Big competition.
Ovulaid is confident that with the help of our advisors the mentioned risks have been minimized. (For more information see 6.1 Development status and tasks!)

6.3 Intellectual property

Patents: Due to the nature of our company, Ovulaid has to anticipate filing for patents and examine the freedom to operate. We studied the patent landscape around our project (on the Derwent Innovation Index, USPTO and Google patents databases) and found that they do not limit our freedom to operate significantly. The patents that we found and cover at least one element of our biosensor system -so they could have a potential impact- are already expired or will expire within one year in both the EU and in the US. To see an example click here.
We have also examined patents relating to diagnostic chewing gum. One patent is focusing on color production by using oxidases and peroxidases whereas we are utilizing the yeast to produce a color compound after activation of an endogenous pathway.

Trademarks: All of our distinctive marks such as our name, logo and our tagline has to be trademarked. We also have to get our own Internet domain.

Copyrights: Ovulaid will routinely copyright appropriate material such as the information leaflet about the appropriate usage of our chewing gum and app.

7.1 Revenue plan

As stated in the market analysis, the total income for Ovulaid is expected to be the following:

2022: $292K + $272K + $0 + $23K = $587K
2023: $448K + $416K + $0 + $36K= $900K
2024: $550K +$511K + $750K + $44K= $1 854K
2025: $624K + $580K+ $1 150K + $50K= $2 404K
2026: $638K + $593K+ $1 567K + $51K= $2 848K
2027: $978K + $908K+ $2 402K + $78K= $4 366K
This is all the income generated from our sales via the webshop, from our sales for the retailers in America and in India and from our mobile application.

All revenues of Ovulaid

7.2 Expected costs

We also took into account the main expected expenses of our company. We based our assumptions of costs either on different websites or personal talks.

	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029
Applying for patents, trademarks, copyrights	$20K	$15K	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Lab renting cost with utilities	$13K	$13K	$13K	$13K	$13K	$13K	$13K	$13K	$13K	$13K
Lab supplies	$13K	$13K	$13K	$13K	$13K	$13K	$13K	$13K	$13K	$13K
Manufaturing costs of the chewing gum base and the biosensor	-	-	$34K	$52K	$63K	$72K	$73K	$112K	$134K	$157K
Wages and salaries	$465K	$580K	$564K	$540K	$540K	$540K	$540K	$540K	$540K	$540K
Marketing	-	$50K	$200K	$150K	$250K	$200K	$200K	$200K	$200K	$200K
Other costs (distribution, storage…)	$80K	$80K	$120K	$120K	$150K	$150K	$160K	$200K	$200K	$200K
Total costs	$591K	$751K	$944K	$888K	$1 029K	$988K	$999K	$1 078K	$1 100K	$1 123K

All expenses of Ovulaid

7.3 Cash flow plan

	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029
Investment cash flow from investors	$450K	$580K	$360K	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Investment cash flow from donators	$145K	$175K	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net revenue	-	-	$587K	$900K	$1 854K	$2 404K	$2 848K	$4 366K	$4 797K	$5 245K
Total costs	$591K	$751K	$944K	$888K	$1 029K	$988K	$999K	$1 078K	$1 100K	$1 123K
Profit before taxes	-$591K	-$751K	-$356K	$13K	$825K	$1416K	$1 849K	$3 288K	$3 697K	$4 122K
Paid tax (Tax rate of profit=20%)	-	-	-	$3K	$165K	$283K	$370K	$658K	$739K	$824K
Cash balance	$4K	$4K	$4K	$10K	$660K	$1 133K	$1 479K	$2 630K	$2 958K	$3 298K

Cash flow of investors

7.4 Payback of the project from investors’ point

	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029
Cash flow of investors	-$446K	-$576K	-$356K	$10K	$660K	$1 133K	$1 479K	$2 630K	$2 958K	$3 298K
Discount rate	1	0.80	0.64	0.51	0.41	0.33	0.26	0.21	0.17	0.13
PV of cash flows	-$446K	-$461K	-$228K	$5K	$270K	$371K	$388K	$552K	$496K	$443K

Based on the financial plan one can see, that if we assume that the investor’s ROI is 25%, the company value is going to reach $3 048 000 by 2030. In reality, this number can be significantly higher as Ovulaid’s technology can have various further applications can easily be created (smart gums tracing different hormones, diseases, etc.) and we can target other markets as well, but these were not in the scope of this business plan. We used the following further assumptions: in the first 3 years, the company can be financed with venture capital and donations. After the first 3 years, the company’s costs can be covered by its own revenues, meaning that we reach break-even and start to make profits. After the 10th year, the company’s revenues are expected to grow by 5% each year. The profit bares 20% tax.

Click to download the Excel file of the financial plan containing all our calculations.

References

1. Market Research Future (2019). Ovulation Test Market Research Report-Global Forecast To 2023. [online] Available at: https://www.marketresearchfuture.com/reports/ovulation-test-market-1341 [Accessed 18 Oct. 2019].
2. MedGadget (2019). Ovulation Test Market 2019-2023 [online] Available at: https://www.medgadget.com/2019/07/ovulation-test-market-2019-2023-key-findings-industry-segments-emerging-audience-profit-regional-study-and-future-prospects.html [Accessed 18 Oct. 2019].
3. Chandra, A., Copen, C.E., & Stephen, E.H. (2013) [online]. Infertility and Impaired Fecundity in the United States, 1982-2010: Data From the National Survey of Family Growth. National Health Statistics Reports, 67, 1-19. Available at: ww.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhsr/nhsr067.pdf [Accessed 18 Oct. 2019].
4. 4. S. Johnson, L. Foster, & F. Humberstone. Women’s views on fertility and conception in five countries (2011] [online]. Available at: https://www.clearblue.com/sites/default/files/wysiwyg/hcpro/publications/HCP_Publications/PUB-0064_v1.pdf [Accessed 18 Oct. 2019].
5. 5. SUND Hub. Om SUND Hub [online]. Available at: https://sundhub.ku.dk/om-sund-hub/ [Accessed 18 Oct. 2019].
6. DecisionDatabases. (2019). Ovulation Test Market Top Players Analysis 2019 | World Industry Trends and 2024 Forecast Report. [online] Available at: https://arapidnewsnetwork.com/ovulation-test-market-top-players-analysis-2019-world-industry-trends-and-2024-forecast-report/ [Accessed 18 Oct. 2019].
7. Targonskaya A. (2019). Ovulation Kit: How to Choose the Right Fertility Predictor and Use It for Maximum Accuracy. [online] Available at: https://flo.health/getting-pregnant/trying-to-conceive/tracking-ovulation/ovulation-kits-guide [Accessed 18 Oct. 2019].
8. Market Research Future. (2019). [online]Available at: https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/ovulation-test-industry-2019-growth-status-emerging-trends-business-insights-advancements-and-opportunities-to-2023-2019-08-05 [Accessed 18 Oct. 2019].
9. Stone L. (2019). [online] Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/13/upshot/american-fertility-is-falling-short-of-what-women-want.html [Accessed 18 Oct. 2019].
10. Market Research Future. (2019). Available at: https://www.medgadget.com/2019/07/ovulation-test-market-2019-2023-key-findings-industry-segments-emerging-audience-profit-regional-study-and-future-prospects.html [Accessed 18 Oct. 2019].
11. Market Research Future (2019). Ovulation Test Market Research Report-Global Forecast To 2023. [online] Available at: https://www.marketresearchfuture.com/reports/ovulation-test-market-1341 [Accessed 18 Oct. 2019].
12. Statista (2018]. Resident population of the United States by sex and age as of July 1, 2018 (in millions). [online] Available at: https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the-us-by-sex-and-age/ [Accessed 18 Oct. 2019].
13. BabyCenter. Surprising facts about birth in the United States. [online] Available at: https://www.babycenter.com/0_surprising-facts-about-birth-in-the-united-states_1372273.bc [Accessed 18 Oct. 2019].
14. Healthline (2018]. How Long Does It Takes To Get Pregnant?. [online] Available at: https://www.healthline.com/health/pregnancy/how-long-does-it-take-to-get-pregnant [Accessed 18 Oct. 2019].
15. Sarah Johnson, Jayne Ellis, Michael Zinaman. Ability of women to read and interpret home ovulation tests. [online] Available at: https://www.clearblue.com/sites/default/files/wysiwyg/hcpro/publications/HCP_Publications/Articles-FertilityAndOvulation/AbilityOfWomenJohnson.pdf [Accessed 18 Oct. 2019].
16. Georgina Jones, Jill Carlton, Sarah Weddell, Sarah Johnson & William L. Ledger (2015). Women's experiences of ovulation testing: a qualitative analysis. [online]. Available at: https://reproductive-health-journal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12978-015-0103-y [Accessed 18 Oct. 2019].
17. Jan Sheehan (2010). The Facts About Irregular Periods. [online]. Available at: https://www.everydayhealth.com/pms/irregular-periods.aspx [Accessed 18 Oct. 2019].
18. Sarah Johnson, Lorrea Marriott, Michael Zinaman (2017]. Use of cycle length alone to predict ovulation, as utillized by some Apps, is highly inaccurate. [online]. Available at: https://www.clearblue.com/sites/default/files/wysiwyg/hcpro/publications/sites/default/files/acog_2018_19g.pdf [Accessed 18 Oct. 2019].
19. Alexandra Sifferlin (2016). Why Your Period Tracker Is Wrong. [online]. Available at: https://time.com/4361855/period-tracker-fertility-tracker-app/ [Accessed 18 Oct. 2019].
20. Luba Lee (2019). How to Track Your Ovulation. [online]. Available at: https://www.wikihow.com/Track-Your-Ovulation#_note-5 [Accessed 18 Oct. 2019].
21. W. Steven Pray, Gabriel E. Pray (2019). Detecting Pregnancy and Ovulation With Home Test Kits [online]. Available at: https://www.uspharmacist.com/article/detecting-pregnancy-and-ovulation-with-home-test-kits [Accessed 18 Oct. 2019].
22. Kate Clark (2019).It's a new era for fertility tech. [online]. Available at: https://techcrunch.com/2019/02/28/its-a-new-era-for-fertility-tech/ [Accessed 18 Oct. 2019].
23. Nick Statt (2019). App makers are sharing sensitive personal information with Facebook but not telling users. [online]. Available at: https://www.theverge.com/2019/2/22/18236398/facebook-mobile-apps-data-sharing-ads-health-fitness-privacy-violation [Accessed 18 Oct. 2019].
24. ZRT Laboratory (2019). Saliva Testing. [online]. Available at: https://www.zrtlab.com/sample-types/saliva/ [Accessed 18 Oct. 2019].
25.Neeta Lal (2018). India’s Hidden Infertility Struggles. [online]. Available at: https://thediplomat.com/2018/05/indias-hidden-infertility-struggles/ [Accessed 19 Oct. 2019].